Until recently, climate data and supporting interpretation have been hard to access, difficult to compare across regions and commodities, and challenging to translate into real‑world planning.
For the people making decisions about land use, food security and biosecurity risks, the evidence was not always available.
The NSW Government’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Primary Industries project has changed this.
One small, multidisciplinary team has translated complex climate science into a consistent, statewide evidence base that planners, industry and government can use.
The result is a detailed analysis of climate risks and opportunities across key commodities and biosecurity threats, built through years of modelling and collaboration with more than 260 industry, academic and government experts.
Crucially, the data won’t stay locked inside reports.
By making the Climate Vulnerability Assessment data freely available on SEED, the NSW Government’s platform for Sharing and Enabling Environmental Data, these insights can be downloaded, mapped and used by others.
Planners can pull the spatial layers into their own systems. Industry participants can test future scenarios. Academic researchers can build on a shared, comparable baseline.
“Our team came from different academic backgrounds, but we shared the same frustration – finding valuable data and not being able to access it,” says the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Acting Project Manager, Dr Jane Kelley. “As scientists, we wanted to provide open‑access data, because that’s what helps us all make better decisions about the future.”
What the data tells us
Understanding how a commodity or biosecurity risk responds to climate – and which variables matter most – is complex.
Take Cherries. The results show that cherry growing in NSW is likely to remain well‑suited to the climate through to 2050, but not without some adaptation. Warmer winters may reduce the winter chill cherries need to set fruit, and hotter conditions close to harvest can affect yield and quality. For growers, this may mean choosing different varieties, improving water management and using shade or protective covers to manage heat. At the same time, warmer temperatures could make new areas suitable for growing cherries and expand the industry.
Forestry provides another clear example. Before the Black Summer bushfires, NSW had more than 300,000 hectares of softwood plantations, with Radiata Pine contributing around $3 billion to the economy each year and supporting thousands of regional jobs. The Assessment shows that hotter and drier summers may reduce suitability for young trees in some areas, while warmer winters may reduce frost risk and create opportunities in others.
“With data that shows us how the plantation estate may change out to 2050, forest managers can think strategically about replanting, management practices and building resilience under future conditions,” says Jane.
Biosecurity is another important application. The Assessment covers risks such as crop diseases, horticultural pests, invasive weeds and livestock parasites. In the case of the Cattle Tick, the Assessment found that rising temperatures are likely to expand the areas where the parasite can survive. “That evidence helps us evaluate current biosecurity policy and consider how it may need to change in the future,” Jane notes.
Planning is a further example. Spatial layers published on SEED can be downloaded directly into Geographic Information Systems, allowing users to map and analyse the results of the Assessment alongside land use and hazards. “Agricultural planners can assess zoning decisions in the context of industry presence and climate suitability out to 2050,” she says, and this supports clearer, more defensible decisions about agricultural activities and where productive land should be protected to support future food security.
From evidence to confidence
To create a statewide picture of climate risk and opportunity, historical climate records and future projections were combined with expert knowledge drawn from research literature, departmental specialists and industry practitioners.
“We engaged with more than 260 experts at key stages of the project to help define the critical variables,” Jane says.
Jane, who grew up on a mixed cropping and cattle farm, has built a career with a clear purpose: helping primary industries build resilience as the climate changes.
“The results of our work show we have more opportunities than we might first think, especially in agriculture,” Jane says. “SEED can help more people see how to make the most of those opportunities and respond to new challenges.”
SEED Map interface displaying Radiata pine climate‑suitability results (RCP8.5)
